Recent events in Bangladesh have highlighted the critical role of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) in supporting Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government amid escalating domestic unrest. Amid student-led protests and violent crackdowns, R&AW has been instrumental in crisis management, reflecting India’s strategic interests in maintaining stability in Bangladesh.
In May 2023, following the announcement of the US visa policy, Sheikh Hasina and her sister Sheikh Rehana held a pivotal meeting with R&AW’s chief and former Indian high commissioners. This meeting, during Hasina’s visit to the Maldives, was crucial in strategizing to counter US pressures. The plan succeeded, ensuring Awami League’s continued grip on power post the January 2024 elections.
During a recent visit to Delhi, Hasina signed three significant agreements with India, raising concerns among opposition parties in Bangladesh. These agreements included:
● Control of Mongla port
● A rail corridor through Bangladesh to Assam and Tripura
● The Teesta River Project (currently stalled)
A controversial clause in the rail corridor agreement allows Indian security forces to assist in Bangladesh, potentially enabling Indian military presence in Bangladesh. This has sparked fears of increased Indian influence and control.
As student protests erupted in Dhaka, R&AW closely monitored the situation. Reports of police firing on students led to heightened tensions, with both governments on edge. R&AW advised imposing curfews and shutting down the internet, drawing on their experience in Kashmir to manage the crisis.
China has expressed displeasure over these developments, particularly the potential use of the rail corridor for military purposes. This has strained Bangladesh-China relations, evident during Hasina’s recent visit to China.
R&AW’s involvement underscores India’s vested interest in Bangladesh’s stability, reflecting broader geopolitical dynamics in South Asia. The unfolding events highlight the delicate balance of power and the strategic maneuvers at play in the region.
Citations:
[1] Priorities for Prime Minister Hasina’s New Term in Bangladesh https://www.orfonline.org/research/priorities-for-prime-minister-hasinas-new-term-in-bangladesh
[2] Research and Analysis Wing – Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_and_Analysis_Wing
[3] Bangladesh and Bangladesh-U.S. Relations – EveryCRSReport.com https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R44094.html
[4] A Conversation With Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-prime-minister-sheikh-hasina-bangladesh
[5] Hasina’s Pitch for Solving the Rohingya Crisis – The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/hasinas-pitch-for-solving-the-rohingya-crisis/
[6] What Underlies Sheikh Hasina’s Successful Diplomacy? https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/what-underlies-sheikh-hasinas-successful-diplomacy/
[7] 2023 Investment Climate Statements: Bangladesh – State Department https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-investment-climate-statements/bangladesh/
[8] [PDF] BANGLADESH TODAY – Department of Justice https://www.justice.gov/file/277191/dl
